Leading Indicators
- Average weekly hours, manufacturing
- Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (ruh-roh, America)
- Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
- Vendor performance, slower deliveries diffusion index
- Manufacturers’ new orders, non-defense capital goods
- Building permits, new private housing units
- Stock prices
- Money supply, M2
- Interest rate spread, 10-year T-bonds less federal funds
- Index of consumer expectations
Coincident Index
- Employees on non-agricultural payrolls
- Personal income less transfer payments (this number is negative in Amerika!)
- Industrial production
- Manufacturing and trade sales
Lagging Index
- Average duration of unemployment
- Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade
- Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
- Average prime rate
- Commercial and industrial loans
- Consumer installment credit to personal income ratio (5.0)
- Consumer price index for services
When in doubt, pick leading. It’s lagging if knowing it would be material non-public info!
